000 AXNT20 KNHC 151711 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 1800 UTC WHEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 25W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 42W- 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W. THE FRONT IS PRESENTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N94W TO 20N94W TO 18N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 91W-95W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24N109W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 98W-103W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PERSISTS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SHORTLY. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS S OF E CUBA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 13N. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N33W TO 23N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. 1022 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N23W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 23N17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N59W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE N OF 31N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA