000 AXNT20 KNHC 151036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL CONTINUE TO MIDDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N20W TO 3N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 90W AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE OVER N FLORIDA TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA TO E CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS... USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N E OF 85W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH MID WEEK. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO THE N INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N70W. THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 475 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N42W TO 24N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N64W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF 32N. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE W ATLC REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FROM 32N50W ALONG 22N65W TO 23N78W ON TUE THEN WASHING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW