000 AXNT20 KNHC 150533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER MEXICO HAS BECOME AN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 28N85W TO 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. N PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATER TODAY WHILE THE S PORTION BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N W OF 81W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 74W. THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 475 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N43W TO 25N49W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N60W TO 23N71W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. THE E ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT REACHING FROM 32N59W ALONG 27N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY MON THEN FROM 32N50W ALONG 22N65W TO 23N78W BY EARLY TUE BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW