000 AXNT20 KNHC 150003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... GALE WINDS DIMINISHED OVER COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO RESUME TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W SW TO 03N17W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH BASE STRETCHING FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ON SE ALABAMA. SURFACE WIND AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N84W SW TO 27N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO 23N92W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT GENERATED BY A LOW S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED ON THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS RELATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE NW GULF A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE VARIABLE FROM 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SW N ATLC WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... OUTSIDE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REFERENCED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NO SURFACE FEATURES OF INTEREST NOR IS THERE ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS ALONG 74W...WHICH IS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ON THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN THAT BESIDES NEAR GALE WINDS ALSO FORCES E TO NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 66W AND 82W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE COASTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT EAST-NORTHEAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N39W SW TO 25N49W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N62W TO 22N71W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FROM THE N-NE OF 15-20 KT AS WELL AS ON THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...N OF 24N VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR