000 AXNT20 KNHC 131637 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE HIGH WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1007 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 29N...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL TOPOGRAPHICAL WIND ENHANCEMENTS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 12W-23W...FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 23W-36W... AND FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N90W TO 24N89W TO 19N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 84W-89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-88W. 20-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N95W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO GULF OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 13N AND E OF 87W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 26N60W TO 26N70W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FRON 20N-30N E OF 45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N40W TO 24N54W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA