000 AXNT20 KNHC 100542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND PULSE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OVER NW MEXICO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG 105W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS EAST TEXAS NEAR 31N96W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO 29N96W TO BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE EAST- CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT TO THE N-NE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT WITHIN STABLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. ASIDE FROM PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO TO 14N68W AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST S OF 16N W OF 78W...THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 82W. THIS AREA ALSO INCLUDES NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NOTED TO THE EAST IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO CURRENTLY...WILL PROVIDE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE E-NE TO 27N55W. WITH A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...THE ONLY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N49W TO 27N62W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N66W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N30W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W THAT SUPPORTS INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 40W-49W. LIKELY EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FINALLY...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 22N15W THAT SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N18W. WHILE OVERALL CONVECTION LACKS WITH THIS FEATURE...THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATES A STRONG PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST FROM 15N-32N E OF 40W. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUADHIBOU INTL AIRPORT IN WESTERN MAURITANIA AND AMILCAR CABRIL INTL AIRPORT IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INDICATED REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING DUST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN