000 AXNT20 KNHC 092327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W 1N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. AT 09/2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS THE S TIP OVER TEXAS JUST S OF BAFFIN BAY. A WARM FRONT IS INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO 23N96W AND N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 88W-91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY E REACHING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT THEN STALLING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED BEFORE SHIFTING E AGAIN ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 21N65W OVER PUERTO RICO TO 14N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-68W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N W OF 78W TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY W CROSSING THE REMAINDER OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY W SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND LATER TONIGHT AND TUE WITH SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N51W ALONG 27N62W TO 27N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N65W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-67W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N48W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 40W-47W. AN UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA 23N17W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N15W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 22N18W TO 20N26W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SAHARAN DUST WRAPPED INTO THIS LOW/TROUGH COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM 17N-36N BETWEEN 15W-38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 33N67W AND 32N73W WITH A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N26W. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E OF BERMUDA AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 31N LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW