000 AXNT20 KNHC 081754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 3N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N15W TO 0N23W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-15W...AND FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-6S BETWEEN 24W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N77W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THIS GALE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND E GUATEMALA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVERTHE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TRADEWINDS TO PRODUCE LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF PASSING SHOWERS WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W WITH FAIR WEATHER. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N19W A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N22W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 16W-23W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N55W TO 15N56W MOVING W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N55W TO 28N61W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA