000
AXNT20 KNHC 080553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST SUN MAR 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS 
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION 
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 02N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 33N70W 
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. TO THE WEST...A MODEST MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH MODERATELY DRY AND 
STABLE AIR COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BASIN. AT 
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF 
WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL 
ALABAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW WINDS WEST OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N97W INTO A 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
19N94W. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY MONDAY WITH A 
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE TEXAS 
COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND 
EVENTUALLY STALL ON WEDNESDAY ALONG 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER 
THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N61W W TO 15N70W. THESE OVERALL 
CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING 
WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 
18N E OF 83W...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN 
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 
74W-77W. OTHERWISE...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS 
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.  
   
...HISPANIOLA...                                              
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS 
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WITH ONLY A SLIM PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN 
TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE COAST 
OF THE SE CONUS IN THE VICINITY OF 33N70W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SW TO 27N74W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY 
ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1028 MB HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS 
ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND EVENTUALLY ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. 
FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N50W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N50W 
TO 22N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO 
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 47W-52W. GIVEN THE 
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN 
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 07N-20N E OF 45W. FINALLY...A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W W-SW 
TO 25N65W.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN