000 AXNT20 KNHC 071136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73.5W-77.5W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 12W-14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 19W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A FRONT LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 23N90W INTO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 90W AND GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF 90W ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE LOUISIANA AND A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS FOCUSED WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NW TO 22N97W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 20N OVER THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W W-SW TO 13N76W. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 83W...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73.5W-77.5W. OTHERWISE...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIM PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL CUBA NE TO 32N46W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PREVAILS N OF 32N PRECEDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE OVERALL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC...SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS S OF 32N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-72W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N46W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 24N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N43W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N17W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W W-SW TO 26N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN