000 AXNT20 KNHC 070556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 94W FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BETWEEN A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N82W TO 19N93W AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 01N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N32W TO 03N40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A FRONT LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N90W TO 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 90W AND GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF 90W ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS LASTING A FEW MORE HOURS S OF 20N W OF 94W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 20N OVER THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W W-SW TO 13N78W. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 82W...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. OTHERWISE...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIM PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NE TO 32N48W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PREVAILS N OF 32N PRECEDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE OVERALL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 29N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-70W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N47W TO 24N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 41W-46W. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N16W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W W-SW TO 26N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN