000 AXNT20 KNHC 061142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO 23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260 NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR