000 AXNT20 KNHC 251729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR ...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS. THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY