000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE E-NE... REACHING THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N80W TO 30N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 39W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W INTO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 25N91W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN SHALLOW...CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ALSO REMAINS LIMITED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS S-SE RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY... CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE FORMED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW INTRODUCING A STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE SURFACE WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES. ...HISPANIOLA... CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO 29N75W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-66W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N75W TO 25N80W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE... OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL DEVELOP FURTHER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC EARLY THURSDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THIS TIME WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN