000 AXNT20 KNHC 232358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE FROM 10.5N-12N BETWEEN 73.5W-76W BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT...DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE LATER IN THE MORNING. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W AND THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 02W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 25N93W TO 18N94W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N84W TO 26N86W...WHICH REPRESENTS AN AREA OF PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF ON WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WED TO WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS TO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THAT ARE FORECAST TO PULSE ABOVE GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS MAINLY E OF 76W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN PERIODIC PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE N FL COAST AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FL. A WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE SE COAST OF FL NEAR 26N80W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES DOMINATES THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE COLD FRONT OVER N FL WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK INTO THE SW N ATLC WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO