000 AXNT20 KNHC 231751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 08N14W TO 02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W...THEN RESUMES N OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 02N49W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF BASIN NEAR 30N86W TO 28N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG IT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COASTS. THIS COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN TWO RIDGES...A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC STRETCHING EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION...AND STRONGER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED ACROSS IOWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATE TODAY AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE FORMED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW INTRODUCING A STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE SURFACE WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES. ...HISPANIOLA... CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS NOTED W OF 67W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED SOUTH OF BERMUDA FROM 28N66W TO 32N64W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE CONUS...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN