000 AXNT20 KNHC 222318 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN MON NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N17W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE N GULF WHILE THE S GULF CONTINUES TO HAVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE GULF BASIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER ALABAMA TO SE LOUISIANA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY S-SE OVERNIGHT THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE MON WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 67W. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1042 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-55W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 49W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM E ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TUE AND LIFT N OF THE AREA WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW