000
AXNT20 KNHC 221129
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING OFF THE NW 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER..THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE 
FORCE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 05N17W TO 01N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 
29W-39W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE E PAC 
EXTENDS AN AXIS N OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE S GULF. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN 
GULF. GENERALLY S TO SE SURFACE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT COVERS THE 
ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF 
S OF 26N AND E OF 87W. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED 
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 28N AND THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 
85W AND 88W. A COLD FRONT OVER TX WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY 
AND WILL PROGRESS SE TO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS  
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF 73W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND 
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN UNTIL 0600 UTC THIS MORNING. 
THESE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN TO GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 
KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. 
                      
...HISPANIOLA... 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER THE 
ISLAND THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
                                     
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 58W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N61W TO 22N69W. THE 
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE STATIONARY 
FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N TO 
32N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A 1036 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 37N31W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL 
ATLC E OF 50W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A 
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE US COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER 
THE W ATLC OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO