000
AXNT20 KNHC 220525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL 
PULSE ABOVE GALE FORCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 09N13W ALONG 04N16W TO 01N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-14W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-
40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                            
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE S GULF. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE 
WESTERN GULF. S TO SE SURFACE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT COVERS THE 
ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF 
S OF 26N AND E OF 87W. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 27N AND 
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. A COLD FRONT OVER TX WILL 
ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TODAY AND WILL PROGRESS SE TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. AT 
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N68W TO 12N71W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND 
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT 
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE WITH GENERALLY THE SAME CONDITIONS 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. 
                      
...HISPANIOLA... 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 
THE N OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND 
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.    
                                             

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 65W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO TO 24N64W TO THE E TIP OF 
CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH 
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. 
FARTHER EAST...A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N32W DOMINATES THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W WITH ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE US 
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. 
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY 
MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO