000
AXNT20 KNHC 210518
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL PULSE AGAIN AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF 
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 4N16W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR AT 30W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 3W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-33W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC 
REGION OVER MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO NW 
FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE 
THE S GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OVER NORTH CAROLINA IS OCCURRING OVER THE BASIN. SE WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT COVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF UP TO 30 KT IS OCCURRING N OF 26N AND W OF 
88W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON SUNDAY AND WILL 
DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF BY MONDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC 
AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO 16N76W TO 
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 200 NM OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. NW 
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. TRADE 
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WINDS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR 
MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY 
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
                     
...HISPANIOLA...   

THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 
IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND 
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH 
THE DAY TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED 
SHOWERS EXPECTED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 73W IS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N61W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS 
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT N 
OF 25N. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE BOTH THE COLD FRONT 
AND STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF 1041 MB 
CENTERED NEAR 36N36W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE 
FRONTS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO