000
AXNT20 KNHC 202356
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL PULSE AGAIN AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF 
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N16W TO 1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 26W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 4W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-31W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER MEXICO TO 
THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W 
ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO NW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE S GULF. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER NORTH 
CAROLINA. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF 
WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N88W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA 
NEAR TERREBONNE BAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW GULF N OF 23N W 
OF 88W LEAVING THE E GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE 
SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE W 
ATLC. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE N GULF ON SUN THAT WILL LOSE 
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE SE GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AT 20/2100 UTC 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 
15N78W 12N82W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT N OF 18N. THIS COLD FRONT BROUGHT 
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO AREAS NORMALLY CONSIDERED MORE 
TROPICAL IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 DEG F WERE REPORTED 
OVER PORTIONS OF W AND CENTRAL CUBA LAST NIGHT WITH THE LOWEST 
BEING 34 DEG F...1 DEC C...IN UNION DE REYES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE 
FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY 
SURFACE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE 
ABOVE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH 
REMNANTS DRIFTING W THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE 
OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST 
OF NEXT WEEK. 
                      
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND 
FROM 19N69W TO 18N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE ENTIRE 
ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT 
CONTINUES E THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND 
SHOWERS THROUGH SAT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD STILL GIVE THE 
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 58W IS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT AT 20/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 24N64W 
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 1969W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 
THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM W-SW 
OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NE OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW