000 AXNT20 KNHC 201124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 20N70W. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W CARIBBEAN... WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AS OF 0900 UTC NW OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 12N84W. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING FOR THAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN DROPPED. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-04N BETWEEN 06W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER IS PRODUCING COLD ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO FRONTS EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 15N79W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N88W. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE N OF THESE FRONTS. CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL. SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 71W-67W AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND TRANSITION TO STATIONARY FRONTS WHILE THEY DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE. ...HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NE TO SW OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 72W SUPPORTS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 23N66W ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W ALONG 25N68W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE LEADING FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LEADING FRONT S OF 25N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE LEADING FRONT N OF 29N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N35W PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL MERGE. THE FRONTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO