000 AXNT20 KNHC 192334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 23N70W. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE AREA S OF 19N WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N TO OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE E GULF AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE W GULF.AT 19/2100 UTC THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME S TIP OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO 26N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. THIS COLD FRONT IS ADVECTING COLD AIR S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE GULF MAINLY S OF 28N. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXITING THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING THE GULF BASIN WITH NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER SE MISSOURI. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP W OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE E GULF ON FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 19/2100 UTC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN ACROSS W JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT ARE LIMITING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO SE NICARAGUA ON FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT AND SUN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ...HISPANIOLA... SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS COULD INCREASE FROM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FRI INTO SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 63W SUPPORTING A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W ALONG 22N70W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N68W ALONG 26N73W THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE EXTREME TIP OF S FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THAT COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE W OF THE LEADING FRONT LEAVING THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT DRY. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING THEN DISSIPATING N OF HISPANIOLA SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW