000 AXNT20 KNHC 190547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS OF 0600 UTC N OF 29.5N W OF 75W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC N OF 28.5N WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 22N79W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N19W TO WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3S42W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 3W TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF BEHIND A STRONG FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 91W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE SW GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OVER THE NW GULF NEARER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF THROUGH TODAY. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE SE US ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN COAST NEAR 19N88W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANYWHERE WITHIN 100 NM SW OF THE TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 32N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING SE OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. FARTHER EAST...A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...THE ATLC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF OF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST AND ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. ON FRIDAY...THE TWO FRONTS SHOULD MERGE AND CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE TAIL OF THE FRONT REACHING HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO