000 AXNT20 KNHC 181754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO 27N80W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT UNTIL 1200 UTC THURSDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS S OF 20N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GALE WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W- 26W...AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N87W. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE GULF WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE E GULF...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY JUST S OF W CUBA. 25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO APPROACH W HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO 27N80W. A GALE IS E OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N22W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA