000 AXNT20 KNHC 171712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS N OF 30N W OF 75W UNTIL 0000 UTC WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC WED S OF 21N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GALE WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE AT 1800 UTC WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE MOST OF N FLORIDA. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W AT 1200 UTC WED FOR SIX HOURS. SEE ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N66W TO NE HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A GALE WARNING IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. ...HISPANIOLA... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO APPROACH W HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF A COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A GALE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF 75W UNTIL 0000 UTC WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N47W TO 23N65. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W TO 22N60W TO NE HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N24W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N75W TO N THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA