000 AXNT20 KNHC 162354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 25N60W. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N- 12.5N BETWEEN 73W-77W TONIGHT AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 74W TUE MONRING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SLIDE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N-21N W OF 95W EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 5N17W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND AT 16/2100 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO 85W. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES WILL SWEEP THIS FRONT ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E INTO THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY REACHING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY EARLY TUE THEN FROM S TAMPA BAY TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE EVENING AND SE OF THE GULF EARLY ON WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W TO 16N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUING WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N69W TO 15N76W. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC PUSHES FURTHER S TO JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY LATE TUE. WED COULD BRING A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 23N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 24N55W THEN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 24N-30N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVER THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE AZORES. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE AND REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW