000 AXNT20 KNHC 161150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OR FROM 31N58W TO 26N65W TO 24N80W. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 77W. GALE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 1200 UTC TODAY FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20N ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N82W TO 24N89W TO 18N96W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 01N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S33W TO 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 01N WEST OF 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH BASE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW OVER NE TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW ALONG 31N94W 29N89W 30N86W TO 28N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 29N E OF 93W. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE BASIN. THIS UPPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE SW N ATLC AND EXTENDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....THUS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO PUERTO RICO NE COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N-NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA ...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN N OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC PROVIDES NE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 73W...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO BELIZE WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING PUERTO RICO NE ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N57W SW TO 24N67W TO SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 23N78W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 19N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N30W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF IT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR