000 AXNT20 KNHC 160606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 79W. GALE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 0600 UTC MONDAY FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL RESUME AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20N ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N82W TO 24N89W TO 18N96W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W SW TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO 02S42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 280 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 25N81W TO 27N88W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE WESTERN BASIN. THIS UPPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT E OF 90W AND SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT W OF 90W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT OVER THE GULF...THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF TUE AND SE OF THE GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....THUS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO NE PUERTO RICO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC PROVIDES NE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 73W...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING PUERTO RICO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES N OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N59W SW TO 25N71W... ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N53W TO NE PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT N OF 29N...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC EARLY TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY WED NIGHT. 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