000 AXNT20 KNHC 151739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 74W TUE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME MON NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W TO 02N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N22W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-02S BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1024 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER GOING AROUND THIS HIGH. MOST OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH CLOUD OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA AND BE VOID OF CONVECTION OR SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 64W-66W. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 10-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE REMAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE N COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING E OF HISPANIOLA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W. A GALE WARNING IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 24N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 24N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 50W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N23W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N50W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND GALE TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA