000 AXNT20 KNHC 151123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 71W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. CONUS LATER TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 01S21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01S21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03S31W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N91W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. SHALLOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH THE UPPER MOISTURE ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY SUNDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N-NE GULF LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN...BEING HIGHEST OVER THE SW BASIN...MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO WHERE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ON THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N62W TO 18N67W THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE W OF 74W INCREASING TO 35 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF 74W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N62W TO 18N67W THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TWO DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO 26N68W AND A SECOND BOUNDARY FROM 30N46W SW TO 23N55W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N62W TO 18N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW COLD FRONT TO COME OFF THE SE CONUS LATER TODAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 17N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR