000 AXNT20 KNHC 150602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. CONUS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 26N91W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. SHALLOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH THE UPPER MOISTURE ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF SUNDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N-NE GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN...BEING HIGHEST OVER THE SW BASIN...MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO WHERE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ON THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 18N67W THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE W OF 74W INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF 74W...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 18N67W THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TWO DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO 25N70W AND A SECOND BOUNDARY FROM 30N46W SW TO 23N54W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO 18N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 16N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR