000 AXNT20 KNHC 141755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND CONTINUES TO 00N20W TO 01S30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF AND BE VOID OF CONVECTION OR SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NE HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 65W-70W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER N COLOMBIA DUE TO A LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 26N73W. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO 21N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N29W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC VOID OF CONVECTION OR SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. FINALLY... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA