000 AXNT20 KNHC 141100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N WEST OF 73W EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUN MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N- 12N BETWEEN 74W-76W EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN MORNING. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME EARLY MON MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W THEN ALONG 04N13W TO 01N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 35W TO 02N40W TO 01N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT TO THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF THE HIGH CENTER WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AND TURN EAST- SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY SATURDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF 74W ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF 74W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. GOES-13 IFR AND LIFR PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH THE NE SURFACE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 60W ON THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N55W SW TO 30N60W TO 26N73W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO MIDDLE TO LOW DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W SW TO 19N55W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 16N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N26W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR