000 AXNT20 KNHC 140605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO 30N81W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AND BE NE OF THE AREA EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N- 12N BETWEEN 74W-76W EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W THEN ALONG 03N13W TO 01N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 34W TO 01N43W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT TO THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF THE HIGH WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AND TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SATURDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. GOES-13 IFR AND LIFR SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH THE NE SURFACE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N60W SW TO 26N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO ANDROS WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO MIDDLE TO LOW DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N44W SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR