000 AXNT20 KNHC 132348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AND BE NE OF THE AREA EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N- 12N BETWEEN 74W-76W EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W THEN ALONG 4N14W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N26W 2N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 2W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE E GULF TO ACROSS CUBA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W ALONG 21N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW TO OVER MEXICO NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF. SKIES REMAIN REMARKABLY CLEAN ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUN THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER W CUBA INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN MONTSERRAT AND GUADELOUPE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N E OF 75W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA S OF 12N AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N E OF 85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND S GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SUN AS IT DISSIPATES. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH THE NE SURFACE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ALONG 28N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. THIS FRONT IS WELL DEFINED BY A ROPE CLOUD IN THE W ATLC E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT E OF 80W. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W ALONG 25N48W 17N58W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN MONTSERRAT AND GUADELOUPE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N23W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N62W TO 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE FROM 32N58W TO 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW