000 AXNT20 KNHC 131745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO 02N40W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W- 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF CONVECTION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA AT 32N92W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF N OF FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 10 KT NE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE DISSIPATING FROM W CUBA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 17N60W TO MONTSERRAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. 15- 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER N COLOMBIA DUE TO A LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 20N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N30W. EXPECT THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA