000 AXNT20 KNHC 131050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W THEN ALONG 04N15W TO 01N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN FLORIDA SW TO 23N90W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG 30N45W SW TO A TAIL E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...WHICH CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...THUS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF IT. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 5 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...HIGHEST IN THE SW BASIN. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NW COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N70W SW TO 25N80W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG 30N45W SW TO 22N51W AND TAIL E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N33W TO 17N37W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA BY FRI NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR