000 AXNT20 KNHC 130600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W THEN ALONG 05N14W TO 02N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N37W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO 28N82W 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE REMAINDER FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG 30N47W SW TO A TAIL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W. TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 18N63W TO 18N65W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...WHICH FAVORS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N78W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO NE MEXICO. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG 30N47W SW TO 21N52W TO A TAIL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W. TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N47W SW TO 22N56W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N65W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA BY FRI NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR