000 AXNT20 KNHC 120001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO 27N59W AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO 27N64W. THESE AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT E WITH THESE FRONTS AND WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W THEN ALONG 5N15W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 2N39W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W-20W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE AND LIBERIA S OF 7N E OF 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF E OF 92W WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU AND MOVE RAPIDLY E OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W TO 12N79W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 14N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 18N AND THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 17N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN FURTHER LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM 10N-15N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THU AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SECOND FRONT IS THE W OF THE FIRST AND EXTENDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OBSERVED THU INTO FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOWS AND FRONTS N OF THE 32N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N57W ALONG 25N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF THE HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N TO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSTANCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE THIS FRONT. A SECOND...RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OVER BERMUDA ALONG 27N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. AS THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR...NO SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. THE GALE WARNINGS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N34W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N31W 20N36W TO 19N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 26W-32W. THE LEADING W ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN. THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND BECOME THE DOMINATE FRONT THU EVENING AS IT TOO MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW