000 AXNT20 KNHC 111137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEPENING LOW ANALYZED AT 986 MB CENTERED NEAR 34N71W EXTENDS INFLUENCE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 58W- 80W. WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-76W...AND THIS AREA WILL TRANSLATE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES E-NE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO 01N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 09W-15W...FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 21W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NW TO OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 34N89W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF MID- LEVEL TROUGHING N OF 19N BETWEEN 65W-75W. BOTH FRONTS EXTEND INTO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE FRONTS LACK SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 16N78W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 70W...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY EXITING THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONTS PASS TO THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 34N69W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AND LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 986 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N71W. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N63W TO 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W...AND THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N70W TO 25N72W TO EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE FRONTS PRIMARILY REPRESENT SURGES OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THEM AND REMAIN RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...THE EASTERN FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 53W-62W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 40N11W TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEAR 28N27W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N32W TO 23N33W TO 20N40W THEN WESTWARD TO 20N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN