000 AXNT20 KNHC 110549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEPENING LOW ANALYZED AT 989 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N72W EXTENDS INFLUENCE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W- 80W. WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AND A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND THIS AREA WILL TRANSLATE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES E-NE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO 01N29W TO 03N39W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 09W-14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 15W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N92W. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-80W. BOTH FRONTS EXTEND INTO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE FRONTS LACK SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...A LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO NE NICARAGUA CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 70W...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY EXITING THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 67W-75W...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS TROUGHING IS FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF RELATIVELY BENIGN COLD FRONTS TO THE NW...HOWEVER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGHING AND BOUNDARIES PASS TO THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 33N72W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AND LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 989 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N68W TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W...AND THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N74W TO 29N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. WHILE THE FRONTS PRIMARILY REPRESENT SURGES OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THEM AND REMAIN RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N66W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 55W-67W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 23N. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 39N12W TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEAR 26N31W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N33W TO 20N45W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR LINE TO 22N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 27W-32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN