000 AXNT20 KNHC 102334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEPENING LOW WITH COLD FRONT THROUGH 31N71W TO 24N71W TO 20N75W WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 29.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W WITH SEAS 10-15 FT BEGINNING TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THESE FEATURES AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 02N31W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 15W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N95W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. TO THE SE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF FROM 24N81W TO 24N89W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 91W WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 91W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E EXITING THE AREA. A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N76W TO 19N85W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 16N87W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 75W. A SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE AREA AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. ...HISPANIOLA... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI AND W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. AFTER THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS W OF 73W. THE FIRST ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N75W TO 30N74W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 27N76W TO 24N81W THEN INTO THE S GULF. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N73W TO 21N76W THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 20N73W AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS AND TROUGH AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N36W WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 22N40W TO 20N48W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 22N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 29W-33W. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW ARE NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N17W TO 26N19W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE PAIR OF FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SE WHILE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA