000 AXNT20 KNHC 101804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF 30N ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 11/0000 UTC WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 02N30W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N06W TO 02N28W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N28W TO 04N49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM FL INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE US COAST. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N77W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N82W AND OVER THE GULF TO 25N88W TO 26N94W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BEST DEPICTED BY A DROP IN DEWPOINTS IN SURFACE OBS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB COVERS THE WESTERN GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT COVERS THE W GULF AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BASIN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROUGHING OVER FL/SW ATLANTIC/AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA THEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N85W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO 20N75W TO 17N83W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING JAMAICA. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES E OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND IS DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS OVER HAITI TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUPPORTS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE US COAST. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW OF 1000 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N77W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W. THE SOUTHERNMOST LOW OF 1001 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N72W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEAR 23N74W TO W CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 200 NM OF THE SURFACE LOWS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO 26N65W. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 35W SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N37W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 23N40W TO 20N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE TO 21N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N17W TO 27N19W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOWS AND COLD FRONTS OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND INTENSIFY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO