000 AXNT20 KNHC 101148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N79W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF 30N ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 11/0600 UTC WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 03N22W TO 02N34W TO 03N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N07W TO 01N30W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N30W TO 06N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED OFF SHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N85W IN THE SE GULF WATERS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...AS THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W THAT HAS FILTERED IN STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N95W THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT EXTENDS FRONTAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...INCLUDING INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 79W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A 1005 MB LOW OFF SHORE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N35W THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N38W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W TO 21N50W THEN BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 21N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE S OF 26N. OTHERWISE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N53W AND A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN