000 AXNT20 KNHC 100553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N OF 30N ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 11/0600 UTC WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 03N45W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...AS THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND WILL INTRODUCE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W THAT IS PROVIDING THE DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT EXTENDS FRONTAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W... INCLUDING INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N E OF 73W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTO TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N38W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N40W TO 22N50W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. OTHERWISE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N54W AND A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN