000 AXNT20 KNHC 092350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO 22N78W BY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-78W WITH SEAS FROM 12-15 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 02N32W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W GULF FROM MEXICO SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT E OF 86W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 22N93W. WITH THIS...A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF S OF 27N. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N85W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 29N86W TO 21N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 86W AFFECTING THE E GULF...SE CONUS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-95W WHILE A GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 95W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO MOVE E TOWARDS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE STRENGHTENING AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE SE ACROSS FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE E GULF FROM 25N84W TO 21N82W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS W AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 75W WHILE A SLIGHT SE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA W OF 75W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGHTENS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE E GULF APPROACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES WEAKENING N OF THE ISLAND BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 33N W OF 61W AFFECTING FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. TO THE E...A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N57W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS E OF THIS HIGH...CENTERED NEAR 30N42W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N46W TO 20N56W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 31W-41W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC REACHING GALE FORCE. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA