000 AXNT20 KNHC 091804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW TO 03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W 01N44W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE TROUGHING IS ALSO AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 29N85W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 21N82W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N90W CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN THIS REGION OF THE GULF FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 27N W OF 88W. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT E WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG PUERTO RICO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 80W WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W TO SE HAITI NEAR 18N72W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N TO 28N W OF 63W...INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N42W THAT SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N63W...DISSIPATING TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 31W AND 43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N55W...A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N22W FURTHER WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NE THROUGH TUE MORNING AND A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATES NEAR 22N42W. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS TUE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR