000 AXNT20 KNHC 090545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 15W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W SW TO 20N96W. THIS TROUGHING COINCIDES WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N88W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SW TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N109W THAT SUPPORTS OVERALL DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING NOTED OVER THE SW GULF. THE STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 89W...AND MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 82W WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N83W. LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND AREAS OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES N OF 13N E OF 73W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND FROM 20N72W TO 22N66W AND BEYOND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W AND AREAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W...INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WHILE STILL IN INITIAL DEVELOPMENT STAGES...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST... ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N48W THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO 21N60W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS S OF 23N. OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W AND A WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN