000 AXNT20 KNHC 082346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 01N-04N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM 27N89W TO 21N86W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 83W-86W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS E TEXAS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS PUSHING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS E GULF E OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS W OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE GULF TO DRIFT N-NE THROUGH AND DISSIPATE. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N86W TO 14N83W TO 11N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 19N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 80W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALSO...THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION IN 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N67W COVERS THE W ATLANTIC WATERS W OF 56W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 31N45W TO 25N54W TO 22N63W. FROM THIS POINT IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 39W-51W. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N44W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 27N22W. ITS WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N20W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E ATLANTIC INTO NW AFRICA FROM 17N22W TO 33N05W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA